Thursday, January 10, 2013

January 2013, Pakistan: the worst case scenario

Just when you think that things cannot go any further wrong in Pakistan, they just do!

Over the course of our young life, we Pakistanis have often felt that we have touched the rock bottom, only to realize further depths to our never ending nightmare.

Now towards the end of the current regimes of PPP, PMLN, ANP, MQM, PMLQ and the sundry elected in the 2008 elections, a vast majority think that after the elections of 2013 things will turn rosy.

People think that nothing could be worst than the lack of governance inflicted upon the nation by the ruling thugs BUT then enters Maulana Tahir ul Qadri!

Regardless of what the motivations of Maulana Qadri are, imagine the following two conversations:

Conversation 1:

Anonymous 1: Mr Qadri, you are the symbol of moderate Islam, your country needs you, the people came out in millions to welcome you on 23 December; you owe them to lead them to Islamabad to take down the despotic regime.

Maulana Qadri: I realize the graveness of the situation my country faces. My country has given me a lot and I feel it my responsibility to lead the fight against the corrupt and the incompetent rulers. I owe it to my brethren Taliban to bring them into main stream.

Anonymous 1: We are impressed, Sir. Our prayers and full support is with you. Keep us abreast of your moves.

Maulana Qadri: Thank you. I shall be leading a grand rally starting on 13 January from Lahore, Minar-e-Pakistan to put a siege on Islamabad on 14 January.

Conversation 2:

Anonymous 2: Mullah Sahib, do you realize the grave danger that the Bralevi moulvi poses to our cause, a cause for which we have made so many sacrifices, lost so many of our brothers and children. We must not let him hijack the true Islam. He must be stopped for the sake of all of our martyrs.

Mullah Sahib: Yes, my friend, we cannot let the sacrifices of our martyrs and nation come to nothing. This Moulvi has declared our Jihad un-Islamic. He is misguided, we will not let him lead the Muslim nation astray. In the name of God, it is our duty to stop him.

Anonymous 2: He had already put up a massive show of support in Lahore. He is next due to leave Lahore for Islamabad on 13 January. Perhaps it would be best to strike at the inception before much support is gathered.

Mullah Sahib: Yes, we must act quickly.


Two causes, both dear to the protagonists that espouse them, if turned to reality would lead to a situation of tension between the Wahabi/Deoband schools and the Bralevi schools to the new level. THUS taking the nation to our further depths, the likes of which we would not have seen before.

To this add the unfortunate passing away of Professon Ghafoor and Qazi Hussain Ahmed, perhaps the steady hands needed to avoid the conflict. Something similar had happened to Congress Party before it went into the hands of Hindu nationalists in the early 1900s! Sometimes nature also helps a conflict and tests a society; and, with men at the helm not up to the task, punishes that society and if the challenges are met, rewards it.

A Pakistan embroiled further into internal chaos by a new internal front between the Bralevis and the Deobands! That is the worst case scenario for Pakistan for the month of January 2013.


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I was really struggling to formulate this sudden surge. I hope that it does not derail the momentum of PTI.

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